A vision of the past haunts those who argue against U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. It directs our attention to America’s experiences in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and warns against entanglements in far-away military conflicts. We must indeed avoid the mistakes of those ill-conceived ventures.

A different vision is, however, a better fit for the situation in Ukraine, and its solution.

It takes us back to Europe in the 1930s. One word — appeasement — has ever since stood for the tragic events of that time. Many historians and political analysts — Christine Adams (time.com on April 16, 2024) for example — have detailed the similarities with today’s crisis in Ukraine.

German Chancellor Adolf Hitler was pursuing an intensive build-up of military power and territorial expansion. He turned his attention to neighboring Czechoslovakia in 1938, claiming that a large section of that country, called the Sudetenland, had been unjustly taken from Germany after its defeat in World War I. The Czechs resisted Hitler’s demand to give it up but, without support from Britain and France, would suffer defeat in a war against its powerful neighbor.

British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain believed that Hitler had a point about the Sudetenland, and took him at his word that this would be his last demand. Mr. Chamberlain, along with his reluctant partner, France, signed a treaty in Munich, Germany on Sept. 30, 1938, surrendering the Sudetenland to Germany. The Czechoslovakians had no choice but to accept the loss of a big chunk of their territory.

The following March, Hitler broke his promise, and occupied the rest of the country. In September, he took the next step by invading Poland, again using the excuse that he was protecting Germans living in in a foreign country. It was clear by then that Hitler had to be stopped, and World War II was on.

Britain’s and France’s appeasement of Hitler has gone down in history as a case study in the futility of giving in to an aggressor in return for a promise not to do it again.

The similarities to today’s conflict over Ukraine begin with Russian President Putin’s claim of victimhood by the West, and the sympathetic ear he finds in some American politicians, including Donald Trump and his vice president. The Russian President, echoing Hitler’s claim about Czechoslovakia, says that Ukraine was unjustly taken from Russia at the end of the Cold War. Mr. Trump has responded, like Prime Minister Chamberlain at Munich, that Ukraine should give up some of its territory in exchange for peace with Russia, and he’s criticized our policy of military aid to Ukraine.

The lesson from appeasement in 1930s Europe is that giving in to an aggressor can lead to a bigger, more expensive, more dangerous, and bloodier conflict further down the line. Germany, Italy, and Japan were intent on overpowering the Western Democracies and creating a new authoritarian world order in the 1930s. This time it’s Russia, along with China and Iran, and there’s little reason to think President Putin will stop if he wins in Ukraine.

The potential benefits from supporting Ukraine far outweigh the cost. The 1.5% of the federal budget that we’re spending is a tiny fraction of the massive losses of machinery and lives that Russia is suffering at the hands of the Ukrainians, according to Congress’s House Committee on Foreign Affairs (foreignaffairs.house.gov on Nov. 15, 2023). The damage extends to its economy, which is finally beginning to weaken under the strain of maintaining the war.

Mary Glantz, with the United States Institute of Peace (usip.org, 3-11-24) reports that analysts say Russia is unlikely to be able to produce military equipment at the current rate beyond this year. Meanwhile, Russian power and influence around the world is declining as the war swallows up its military and economic resources, as reported by Amy Knight at the Wall Street Journal on Dec. 17, 2024. Uncomfortable silence has replaced active support for the war among Russian citizens, according to Vadim Shtepa at the Eurasia Daily Monitor on Sept. 10, 2024.

Russia is increasingly vulnerable as the war drags on, but, if it can outlast the West and win in Ukraine, the consequences will extend around the world and into the future. It would encourage Russia to take the next step in its quest for dominance in Europe. China would likely interpret it as a green light for its threat to invade Taiwan, with the possibility of a world war to follow.

The next move is up to us, and the world is watching.

Lowell Harp is a retired school psychologist who served school districts in Ogle County. His column runs monthly in The Ogle County Life. For previous articles, you can follow him on Facebook at http://fb.me/lowellharp.