Consider this: The state of the economy

Reed Harris
Posted 6/6/24

One of the most identified concerns of Americans this year is the state of our economy.  But is this really true when talking about the economy as a whole?  The markets have risen with Biden as they did with Trump, however not at the same rate. Remember, however, Biden’s term is not over yet.

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Consider this: The state of the economy

Posted

One of the most identified concerns of Americans this year is the state of our economy.  But is this really true when talking about the economy as a whole?  The markets have risen with Biden as they did with Trump, however not at the same rate. Remember, however, Biden’s term is not over yet.

If we look at the unemployment rates, it was at 3.7 percent at the end of December 2023 and at 6.7 at the end of December 2020.  Not really a bad accomplishment when looking at the rates during the beginning of COVID-19.  But, the battle with COVID-19 went on and now, as of April 2024, the rate is 3.9.  This data is provided by the US Department of Labor at www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm.

Now let’s look at the labor market and the number of jobs reported.  According to the site unemploymentdata.com/charts/historical-employment-data/, at the end of January 2017, the employment was at 143,376,000.  At the end of 2020, 143,604,000 but was affected by COVID-19.  The peak was in 2019 at 153,095,000.  Currently, our employment is at 158,016,000 after fighting through the pandemic.  A quick glance at the numbers since 2007 seems to show a steady progression even with a pandemic.  The number between November 2023 and January 2024 dropped slightly, however have been moving up steadily since.

GDP is the final statistic I will discuss here.  The real GDP was 19,612,000,000 in 2017 and rose to 20,234,000,000 in 2020.  It had fallen from 2019 2.2% due to the pandemic.  In 2023, the real GDP was 22,377,000,000 with one year to go before Biden’s term is over.  We seem to be doing very well when it comes to our Gross Domestic Product.  These numbers are from the site www.thebalancemoney.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543.

I surely can’t tell you how you should feel about this information.  However, it definitely does not look as if the country is falling apart economically.  With a pandemic in the middle of two presidencies, it is hard to tell the meaning of the data, so we have to look at what is our biggest concern.  In this respect, I think most of the comments I have heard through the news or personally is that the cost of products is too high.  I would have to agree.  But is this something a president in particular or the government in general can change?

Usually, a good look at how businesses are profiting is through the GDP we just discussed.  At the website I mentioned, the GDP in 2021 rose by 5.8%.  This, of course, makes our country look good but since well over half of the GDP is made up of personal spending, this means we are spending a lot more for goods and services.  Part of this, of course, is caused by our having more disposable income due to wages rising. But a lot of it does seem to be the high costs of goods.

We have been told that during the pandemic, due to transportation expenses increasing for many different reasons, goods and services began costing more.  But now that the pandemic is over, isn’t it time to reduce those costs?  I see much more traffic on the roads, in the skies, and on the rails now, don’t you?  Wouldn’t this mean that things are getting better?  Shouldn’t we expect to see our prices for essentials go down?

There are other excuses for price increases, too.  Wars in other countries supplying goods, embargoes, oil prices being manipulated by OPEC and by other governments, environmental effects such as the Panama Canal’s low water tables, to name a few.  Some of these are things we cannot change.  Some are just annoying and a way to rip us off.

So, when we worry that the economy is bad maybe we can look at a bigger picture not just prices.  This is hard to do, so if we worry most about prices let’s think about why they are still so high.  Will we have to have our government step in and start taxing windfall profits?  This would help and may have to be done but doing so should not be affected by which party gets into office.  So, why would corporations be keeping prices so high for so long?

We are in a presidential election year so let’s think about that.  What does keeping prices high do under these circumstances?  Biden has said he wants to tax corporations more so that they actually pay what they should.  Trump has said he wants to give corporations additional tax breaks when he gets back into office.  So, what do you think a corporation would do under these circumstances?  Are they trying to nudge or force your vote a certain way?  Are they succeeding?