Is this coming Tuesday the biggest election of our lifetimes? No. The election of 2016 was, trust me on that. Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton two years ago shook up the political world more than any election in U.S. history.
In 2016 the American people truly shocked the world when they voted for massive change in the form of electing Donald J. Trump the 45th President of the United States.
So, what will Tuesday’s midterm election mean? Will it be a rebuke or a rubber stamp on President Trump's first two years in office? Or neither?
Well, if the Democrats pick up 23 or more seats they will take over the House of Representatives, which historically is what normally happens in the first midterm of a new president. With rare exceptions (only twice since WWII), the opposite party of the president always gains seats in the midterms. This would fall under the “neither a rubber stamp nor a rebuke” category. In fact, let’s lay out the three possible scenarios for Tuesday:
Scenario One (most likely):
Dems pick up the House and Republicans maintain control of the Senate. The Trump administration would then follow the path of the last five two-term presidents going back to Ronald Reagan– a divided power structure in Washington. If this happens, it will likely be overblown by the pundits and political class. “The people have spoken…and they don’t like Trump!” will be a common refrain, but historically, it would be a completely normal thing, and an era of minor gridlock begins anew.

Scenario Two (low possibility):
Dems pick up both the House and the Senate. This would definitely be a massive victory for the liberals and it would be accurate to call it a rebuke of the president. Trump would no longer have his pick of Supreme Court nominees as he or she would have to go through a Democrat-led Senate to get confirmed.
The government would be all but entirely gridlocked for the next two years (which though not ideal, isn’t necessarily bad). Trump would still have all the powers of the presidency including being commander in chief of the military and writing executive orders, but the Democrats could stop any new legislation that would be deemed too conservative, as well as any federal judge deemed not moderate enough.
This might result in Trump moving to the center politically, much like Clinton did in the mid-90s, which would hurt him with the GOP base, but possibly gain him favor with Independents in his 2020 re-election race.
Scenario Three (low possibility):The Republicans maintain control of both the Senate ad the House. This would truly be an historic rubber stamp for a first-term president. “We like you and keep doing what you’re doing, Mr. Trump” would be the message from the electorate to the president and his party.
The wall gets built. Tax cuts are made permanent. Our economy continues to roar along. The Republicans could of course over-reach – or not reach far enough for their base– and there could be a backlash in 2020, where the map for the GOP in the Senate is very unfavorable.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though; this scenario is unlikely but extremely exciting to conservatives like me. The years 2016-2020 would be the four most consecutive conservative years policywise in American history, and well-received results (a roaring economy, secure borders, peace overseas, etc.) could create a sort of Right-Of-Center permanent majority (in Washington anyway) for decades to come.
If the first two scenarios occur, they will both be overblown by much of the media. It will be a “GOP shellacking/bloodbath/pick-your-metaphor.”
If the third scenario occurs, look for it to be severely downplayed. Things like “the Dems didn’t get out the vote” will be muttered. “The Dems didn’t do a good enough job getting out the vote” “The Dems didn’t communicate their message well enough,” and so on.
Make no mistake, it will be monumentally consequential if the GOP wins and is still in charge of both houses on Tuesday. And it will conversely be a gigantic victory for the DEMS if they win both houses. But the most likely scenario is still scenario one.
Happy Election Day.